Archibald had taken the Women’s Endurance lead in London on Friday following her second place in the scratch race, but was eliminated with seven riders left in the elimination event while Valente took an impressive victory.
It means the American leads Archibald by eight points going into Saturday’s finale at the Lee Valley Velodrome.
“It wasn’t part of the game plan or her usual dominance,” Hoy told Eurosport.
“It’s hard to pin it down to was it her legs or a momentary lapse of concentration.
“She didn’t look to have that change in pace that she normally has. When the hammer goes down she can gain three or four lengths in the space of half a lap and that wasn’t there tonight.
“I wouldn’t say it’s panic stations but it’s going to take a massive performance [to win the title].”
‘That’s a disaster!’ – Archibald eliminated with seven riders left
However, Valente immediately hit back with her first win at this year’s Track Champions League by beating Norway’s Anita Stenberg in the final sprint in the elimination race.
Hoy still believes Archibald can respond and is backing her to come out flying in front of the home crowd on Saturday night.
“We haven’t had a double-header this season so we don’t know how both riders will recover,” the six-time Olympic gold medallist said.
“So much could be about getting the fuel on board, getting a decent night’s sleep and resetting for tomorrow.”
Blythe added: “It showed tonight that Valente is just a little more vigilant and fresher. When you’re fresher, it’s a lot easier.
“When you’re suffering you make these little mistakes and I think that’s what we saw with Katie. For Katie, she might need to not worry about the overall and just go out and have fun.
“There’s a lot of money involved and that can play on your mind. Tomorrow, she could go, ‘Screw this, I’m going to go out, have fun and win some bike races’.”
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