Why this pro (with a memorable last name) is our long-shot pick to win: Valero Texas Open odds

This week’s 2023 Valero Texas Open is the final PGA Tour event before the Masters, and we have our eye on a long-shot to pick up his first win and earn a spot at Augusta National. Here’s our pick, the betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.

Valero Texas Open odds: Long-shot bet

Adam Schenk — hard to forget that name for golfers, right? — has never won a PGA Tour event, but we think there is an outside shot that the 31-year-old pro changes that this week.

Schenk’s odds to win the Valero Texas Open sit at +5000, right on the edge of long-shot territory. But we think his chances are better than the oddsmakers predict. Schenk has had a solid season so far, and it appears to be getting better as we head into spring.

He’s only missed five cuts in 17 starts, with five top-25 finishes to show for it, including a T12 at the Shriners Children’s Open and a T16 at the Zozo Championship. Most importantly, his best finish of the year came in his last start at the Valspar Championship, where he earned a solo runner-up finish, one shot behind winner Taylor Moore.

He missed the cut in his last two appearances at the Valero Texas Open, but those starts were amid bad seasons for the veteran. In 2019, Schenk finished T7 at TPC San Antonio.

Should you entrust $10 with Schenk to pull off a win this week and it hits, you’ll walk away with $500 (and he’ll earn an invite to next week’s Masters). For less risk or an insurance bet, it’s worth placing modest bets on Schenk to finish top 10 or top 20.

How last week’s long shot fared

Last week Kevin Kisner was our long-shot pick to win the final playing of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Kisner, a former Match Play champion, had long odds of +12500 to start the week.

But Kisner’s chances took a major hit in his first match against Hideki Matsuyama. It was an intense duel, with the lead never getting beyond 1 up. It was all square through the first 12 holes, but Matsuyama went 1 up when Kisner made bogey at 13, then held on to finish him off by the same score.

Kisner won his second match, but Justin Suh defeated him 2 up on Friday to end Kisner’s tournament with a round-robin score of 1-2-0.

PAST RESULTS

2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Kevin Kisner (Odds: +12500; Finish: T31)
2023 Valspar Championship: David Lingmerth (Odds: +12500; Finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)

Valero Texas Open odds: The favorites

With a lot of Tour stars sitting this week out to prepare for the Masters, it’s crowded at the top of the odds-to-win standings. Tyrrell Hatton leads the way as the pre-tournament betting favorite at +1200.

Corey Conners and Rickie Fowler are tied for second, at +2000. J.J. Spaun, who is the defending champion this week, comes in at +3300.

You can see the top 15 and ties in the Valero Texas Open betting odds as of Monday afternoon below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2023 Valero Texas Open betting odds (Top 15 and ties)

Tyrrell Hatton (+1200)
Corey Conners (+2000)
Rickie Fowler (+2000)
Si Woo Kim (+2200)
Chris Kirk (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Davis Riley (+2800)
Taylor Montgomery (+2800)
J.J. Spaun (+3300)
Matt Kuchar (+3300)
Aaron Rai (+4000)
Cam Davis (+4000)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4000)
Matt Wallace (+4000)
Ryan Fox (+4000)