A former champion and a prospect-turned contender duke it out inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Dec. 10, 2022) when Jan Blachowicz takes on Magomed Ankalaev for UFC’s vacant Light Heavyweight. In UFC 282’s pay-per-view (PPV) event, fan-favorite Lightweight, Paddy Pimblett, gets the spotlight in the co-feature against Jared Gordon, and the ESPN+-streamed main card will also see Alex Morono step in on just three days’ notice to take on the always dangerous Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Procrastinating on Christmas/holiday shopping? Maybe a bigger budget will help get the ideas flowing …
What Went Wrong at UFC Orlando?
Francis Marshall, Jonathan Pearce, Sergei Pavlovich, Natan Levy, Matheus Nicolau, Rafael dos Anjos and Stephen Thompson
Good work from the lot of them, though Levy probably could have made things easier for himself.
I was genuinely surprised by how few answers she had for Angela Hill. Ducote is a very capable counter-striker, but the sheer variety and volume Hill sent her way seemed to leave her flummoxed. I’d picked her for her volume and wrestling, and both wound up nonexistent. In short, it was a consummate performance from Hill and a somewhat worrying one from “Gordinha.”
Man, if he’d just stuck with the low kicks. I will say, my bad for not being aware of the amount of damage he had to his knees. I feel like he had the right idea at the start for how to beat Phil Rowe, but his body was unable to follow through.
It wasn’t the first time Diakiese petered out like that. Fair play to Johnson, though I do think Diakiese could have done a lot more in the second and third rounds. He could have at least tried to back Johnson to the fence before shooting.
Daukaus does seem to be a step below what I thought he was, but also, where the hell was that Eryk Anders these last few years? The guy looked terrific.
UFC 282 Odds For The Under Card:
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-170) vs. Chris Daukaus (+145)
A general rule is that when two knockout artists coming off of knockout losses collide, you don’t want to get invested in the outcome.
Edmen Shahbazyan (-280) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+235)
I still think Shahbazyan can turn things around, and even the version we’ve seen of late should be too much for Lungiambula. Shahbazyan got thrown in against three Top 15-ranked guys in a row, and losing to them in no way suggests that he can’t handle a perennial underachiever like “Champion” Dalcha. In short, he’s worth a look.
Raul Rosas Jr (-240) vs. Jay Perrin (+200)
I’m down to put a bit on Perrin, honestly. He’s definitely the better striker of the two and a capable grappler in his own right. While Rosas is a sufficiently stout wrestler to control the early going, he’s green enough that Perrin should be able to steer clear of his submissions and escape from rough spots to take over on the feet.
Joaquin Buckley (-155) vs. Chris Curtis (+135)
I can’t pick these guys’ fights to save my life. I think it’s best for everyone involved if I don’t make a recommendation.
Erik Silva (-110) vs. T.J. Brown (-110)
On one side is Silva, who’s mostly untested and rarely goes past the first round. On the other is Brown, who has the technical ability to out-class Silva, but tends to underperform and/or get clipped with worrying regularity. Best avoided.
Billy Quarantillo (-165) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+140)
Cutting an extra 10 pounds for the first time in nearly a decade is a risky endeavor at the best of times. Doing it against one of the most exhausting, high-pace fighters in UFC just seems like a terrible idea. Hernandez is a very capable fighter and potentially better than anyone “Billy Q” has beaten in the Octagon, but the circumstances and Hernandez’s history of being overwhelmed suggest that the former is worth an investment.
Vinicius Salvador (-205) vs. Daniel Da Silva (+175)
Da Silva has lost three consecutive winnable fights, and several of the issues he ran into were self-inflicted. That level of inconsistency bodes ill against a man in Salvador who has bricks for hands and a great chin. While Da Silva will have a speed and dynamism advantage, I’m confident he’ll find some way to get knocked down, so bank on Salvador.
Cameron Saaiman (-325) vs. Steven Koslow (+270)
The only mixed martial arts (MMA) footage of Koslow from the last three years was paywalled, so I don’t know enough about his current abilities to make a confident determination. Saaiman’s pace and power should let him smoke Koslow, but I’ve been burned in situations like this before.
UFC 282 Odds For The Main Card:
Magomed Ankalaev (-280) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+235)
This is probably an Ankalaev win, but I’m not -280 confident in that. Blachowicz is tough to take down if you’re not Glover Teixeira and just has this weird knack for finding success against ostensibly better strikers.
Paddy Pimblett (-250) vs. Jared Gordon (+210)
I like the underdog here. Not only does Gordon have the pressure and grappling skills to recreate the success Jordan Leavitt enjoyed against Pimblett, but he also beat a very similar sort of top control specialist in Joe Solecki not too long again. He can hold his own in a firefight as well, and considering that Pimblett isn’t as strong a wrestler as Grant Dawson, I’m willing to bank on “Flash.”
Santiago Ponzinibbio (N/A) vs. Alex Morono (N/A)
Odds aren’t out at time of writing. Go Ponzinibbio if you can get better than -150; Morono’s improved a ton, but the 180-pound Catchweight has me thinking he’s not in tip-top shape.
Dricus Du Plessis (-180) vs. Darren Till (+155)
I’m on the Du Plessis train until the wheels fall off. This dude rules.
Even beyond my support for a guy whose style absolutely should not be as effective as it is, Till is 1-4 in his last five and getting in his face has historically been a good way to deal with him. Sure, those five guys were all very good fighters, but that and his constant injuries are a bad sign against an all-out aggressor like “Stillknocks.”
Ilia Topuria (-135) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+115)
Give me Topuria at those odds for sure. He’s by far the best wrestler Mitchell has yet faced in the Octagon and has the power to knock “Thug Nasty’s” head into the third row if they trade for any length of time. As long as Topuria has the weight cut figured out, we can expect a violent early finish.
UFC 282 Best Bets:
- Single bet — Jay Perrin: Bet $40 to make $80
- Parlay — Edmen Shahbazyan and Jared Gordon: Bet $40 to make $128.40
- Parlay — Billy Quarantillo and Dricus Du Plessis: Bet $50 to make $75
- Parlay — Vinicius Salvador and Ilia Topuria: Bet $50 to make $79.50
There’s nothing more festive than a bunch of guys beating the tar out of each other for money. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Additional Investment (Aug. 2022): $400
Current Total: $955.62
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 282 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard (on ESPN2/ESPN+) at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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